An economist friend provided the following bleak analysis of the path he believes the world is now following:
1. Debt (excessive credit creation and lax lending standards fed by capital inflows and current account deficits)
2. Deficits (income shortfalls on debt charges arising from negative gearing originally done in expectation of capital gains)
3. Deleveraging (debtors are forced to recapitalize to avoid a debt trap as speculative mania subsides)
4. Dumping – distressed selling (to recapitalize, businesses liquidate assets, labour, and inventories and investors capitulate)
5. Deflation (as assets and labour are shed their prices plummet as reflected in stock indices, real estate prices, wages, etc)
6. Default (many businesses and investors find their assets worth less than their liabilities and they have negative equity)
7. Depression (if the government lets the situation develop to this point, the economy collapses with massive unemployment).
We are now well past 1 and into 2, 3 and 4 with 5 and 6 still in early stages. Hopefully, governments will stop this train wreck before we get to 7. This will require measures sufficient to offset the contractionary spiral under way, assuming this is possible.
Sunday, February 22, 2009
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Komosion in the market: The Global Financial Crisis
Here is an article I wrote for Komosion's (www.komosion.com) February 2009 newsletter, Komosion in the Market:
As a result of the Global Financial Crisis, Australian companies are now very focused on getting the best return they can for every dollar they spend. This means cutting discretionary expenditure and finding more cost effective what they must do.
For almost all sectors of the economy this is bad news - very bad. Yet Internet marketing is forecast to grow.
In this market, the Internet comes into its own.
The medium is all about efficiency and effectiveness. In a research paper published in June last year – before the crisis had really unfolded - the world’s leading information technology research and advisory company Gartner (http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?id=707810) described the Web as “an excellent medium with which to innovate, measure, analyze and improve”.
The word innovation prompts many people to glaze over – but in this context all it really means is using technology to do what you have previously done (sales, marketing, transactions, communications, branding etc) in a more efficient way.
The Gartner paper looked specifically at the use of web content management technology and cited “a renewed interest and consequent drive to link web content management technology to fundamental business goals”.
The Global Financial Crisis forces company’s to do more for less – connecting leveraging the web to virtually every business’s fundamental goals.
Last year, Komosion in the Market referred readers to some work done by the Australian Tourism Data Warehouse suggesting that even small businesses with an effective digital strategy could generate up to 30 pre-qualified sales leads a day.
Marketing through traditional ‘above-the-line’ media (principally TV, magazines and newspapers) has required a leap of faith at the best of times. You’re hoping that the right subset of a large market – you’re paying all of it – is getting your message. And, of course, you’re targeted audience is likely highly distracted at the point of consumption – on a commute, at home with the family etc.
People using the Internet are ‘leaning forward’ and highly engaged. The web’s also measurable. Put simply, the medium can deliver better value marketing. And you don’t need hundreds of thousands of dollars of recurrent annual investment in mainstream media. What do you need?
· A leading digital site powered by a content management system
· Ongoing Search Engine Optimisation and analytics
· Ongoing planned digital spend
· Continuous revision, refinement and improvement
Put all that together and you can understand why companies’ use of Internet for marketing is forecast to grow in the face of the Global Financial Crisis.
As a result of the Global Financial Crisis, Australian companies are now very focused on getting the best return they can for every dollar they spend. This means cutting discretionary expenditure and finding more cost effective what they must do.
For almost all sectors of the economy this is bad news - very bad. Yet Internet marketing is forecast to grow.
In this market, the Internet comes into its own.
The medium is all about efficiency and effectiveness. In a research paper published in June last year – before the crisis had really unfolded - the world’s leading information technology research and advisory company Gartner (http://www.gartner.com/DisplayDocument?id=707810) described the Web as “an excellent medium with which to innovate, measure, analyze and improve”.
The word innovation prompts many people to glaze over – but in this context all it really means is using technology to do what you have previously done (sales, marketing, transactions, communications, branding etc) in a more efficient way.
The Gartner paper looked specifically at the use of web content management technology and cited “a renewed interest and consequent drive to link web content management technology to fundamental business goals”.
The Global Financial Crisis forces company’s to do more for less – connecting leveraging the web to virtually every business’s fundamental goals.
Last year, Komosion in the Market referred readers to some work done by the Australian Tourism Data Warehouse suggesting that even small businesses with an effective digital strategy could generate up to 30 pre-qualified sales leads a day.
Marketing through traditional ‘above-the-line’ media (principally TV, magazines and newspapers) has required a leap of faith at the best of times. You’re hoping that the right subset of a large market – you’re paying all of it – is getting your message. And, of course, you’re targeted audience is likely highly distracted at the point of consumption – on a commute, at home with the family etc.
People using the Internet are ‘leaning forward’ and highly engaged. The web’s also measurable. Put simply, the medium can deliver better value marketing. And you don’t need hundreds of thousands of dollars of recurrent annual investment in mainstream media. What do you need?
· A leading digital site powered by a content management system
· Ongoing Search Engine Optimisation and analytics
· Ongoing planned digital spend
· Continuous revision, refinement and improvement
Put all that together and you can understand why companies’ use of Internet for marketing is forecast to grow in the face of the Global Financial Crisis.
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